A Measured Response To Madness
Tariffs are our reality, to no one's surprise. What now?
So “Liberation Day” has come and gone, and Donald Trump slapped the European Union (among many other nations) with a 20 percent tariff. To no one’s surprise, this kickoff to a global trade war tanked stock markets around the world.
In our corner of the world, European wine and spirits will now face a 20 percent markup in the U.S. Though to be clear, as has been noted by several news outlets, Trump has left his threat of a more punitive 200 percent tariff still on the table, if the EU retaliates against American booze. As importer Harmon Skurnik told Food + Wine: “we aren't out of the woods yet with the threat of a disastrous 200% tariff—that's to be decided April 14.”
I’ve been wading through the various “measured” industry responses to the new tariff on wine and spirits, and the consensus seems to be, basically: Welp, at least it’s not 200 percent! Those of us who live in Trump’s America are well acquainted with this sort of response: Welp, this objectively terrible thing that happened is not such bad news compared to the nightmare scenario that MAGA fascists have previously threatened. This is, essentially, life in the United States of America at the moment.
What’s most concerning is just how much our government’s actions go against the will and demand of American consumers. Americans purchased $31.6 billion of imported wine in 2024. Every dollar of wine imported to the U.S. results in roughly $4.52 in revenue for American citizens as it travels through the supply chain, from 4,000 U.S. importers and distributors (most small), to tens of thousands of restaurants and retailers, keeping millions of people employed.
“I think the tariffs ultimately accelerate declines in consumption,” said Stephen Rannekleiv, a global beverage strategist with Rabobank, in a quote to Eric Asimov in the New York Times. That means the tariffs will accelerate what are already alarming trends in worldwide wine consumption. To say these tariffs come at a bad time for the wine industry is an understatement.
Let’s also not forget that spirits, and cocktail culture, will be heavily affected by these tariffs, as well. The Washington Post ran a good infographic article the other day, showing which popular cocktails will be most affected by the tariffs. Will companies simply stop importing things like vermouth and amaro? Aperol Spritz and Negroni lovers should be worried.
Just last month, Wine Business Monthly published its retail sales analysis on the U.S. wine trade. Total off-premise wine sales dropped 6 percent in value and 7 percent in volume between December 2023 and December 2024, across all price tiers. Imported wines saw a 7.4 percent drop across the board—with wines from places like Australia, Argentina, and Germany seeing declines around 10 percent.
But I want to zero in on Wine Business Monthly’s analysis of specific pricing numbers. Among the worst decline were for wines priced from $8 to $10.99 (8.4 percent by value and over 9 percent in volume) and wine from $11 to $14.99 (aka the “Josh price tier”) which dropped by more than 3 percent in both value and volume. As I’ve ranted about for a while, less and less people want cheap, branded bulk wine.
One glimmer of sunshine in Wine Business Monthly’s analysis was from $20 to $24.99, the price tier termed “Luxury Glass” within the business. Sales of wines from $20 to $24.99 remained steady. This is not a surprise.
Twenty dollars has been the wine industry’s line in the sand for a while now. The Wine Market Council actually defines “high-end wine consumers” as people who purchase a wine over $20 at least once a month. High-end wine consumers make up only about seven percent of the U.S. adult population, but they are essential to the wine industry. These are not just old people: 42 percent are between the ages of 21 to 39. And they’re not just white, either: 17 percent are Black Americans, 13 percent Latino, and 5 percent Asian. I suspect that most people reading this newsletter fall into the high-end wine consumer category.
So what happens when that $20 bottle in a wine shop turns into a $24 bottle (or higher) due to Trump’s 20 percent tariffs? That is the billion-dollar question.
We do have some clues. A WMC survey in 2023 asked high-end wine consumers what they would do if their disposable income was reduced. Surprisingly, 38 percent said they would drink less wine but continue drinking the same $20+ wine they are now. Another 15 percent said wine is so integral to their life that it would not impact their wine purchasing at all. Less than half said they would continue to drink wine, but just not as many $20+ bottles.
At the end of the day, what concerns me most about all of this is how it affects what’s at the core of this newsletter: literally everyday drinking. Unicorn wines and collector bottles are great, but a wine culture, a drinking culture, is based on reasonably-priced, high-quality bottles that evince the nebulous idea of “value.”
But what is “value” anyway? It’s something I’m reconsidering given the shifting landscape. In my annual In-and-Out list, I cheekily declared $12.99 wines as “out” and $31.99 wines as “in.” But really, a $32 wine is not cheap, and at that price I mostly recommend bottles that I find comparable in quality to a $50-$60+ wine from a “prestige” region. Thirty-two dollars was right in line with WMC’s 2023 survey results, in which high-end consumers said they spent an average of $31 per bottle for a weekday dinner at home. But now, with the cursed tariff, this hypothetical $31.99 wine is going to be hovering close to $40. It’s forcing me to rethink things.
For starters, once a month, I’m going to publish a newsletter focused on interesting wines that retail under $25—essentially on wines that were priced around $20 pre-tariff and now will inevitably creep up a few dollars. A friend suggested that we refer to these as “tariff buster” wines. I’m not sold on that term, but the first “tariff buster” post will be published on Tuesday. It will be available only to paid subscribers.
Beyond that, my sincere hope is that the industry, from producers to importers to distributors to retailers, will be able to offer these kinds of everyday wines. I realize everyone will feel it. In the meantime, it’s time to stock up on the supply of imported wines that currently exists in the U.S.
Finally, I really want to hear from you, dear readers, about how these tariffs will be changing your wine-buying habits, as well as what you’d like to see more of from me.
Twelve Tariff-Busting Wines Under $25
Here are a dozen wines I’ve covered recently that you can buy today for $24 or less, listed under the article where they were first mentioned. After today, these recommendations will be for paid subscribers only.
2022 Celler Pardas “Sus Scrofa” ($19)
From one of my favorite producers in Catalonia, made from the red sumoll grape. Aged in concrete tank (50 percent whole cluster), this is very much a red for contemporary tastes. Electric and lively. On the nose it’s almost like a young Nebbiolo with its earthiness and dark minerality. On the palate, there’s lots of juicy red and purple fruit, with edgy tannins and a cool, dry stony finish.
2023 Batussa Negre ($24)
Made by Óscar Navas of La Furtiva, with trepat sourced from Conca de Barberà blended with 10 percent macabeo. One of the more popular light reds at natural wine bars in Barcelona. A happy wine that’s juicy and easy drinking, but also complex, with good structure.
2022 Espelt Pla de Gates Blanc ($22)
I wrote about this blend of garnacha gris and garnacha blanca from Empordá in my recent piece on Catalan garnacha. This is winemaker Anna Espelt’s most widely available wines. Grown in her old-vine Mas Marés vineyard and aged nine months in large neutral barrels, this is ripe and fresh, with great texture.
2023 Finca Olivardots Groc d'Amfora ($19)
Another blend from a great Empordá producer, this one with garnacha blanca, garnacha gris, carignan blanc, and macabeo, aged four months in amphora. Electric acidity, underlying earthiness and minerality, notes of citrus and apple, and a saline finish.
2023 Markus Altenburger ‘Vom Kalk’ ($23)
“Vom kalk” means “from limestone,” and this blaufränkisch comes from Leithaberg’s soils rich in—well, you can probably guess. Earthy and floral on the nose, with a zingy, happy palate of juicy, tart berry and cherry.
2022 Kolfok ‘Intra! the Wild Red’ ($24)
A terrific young blaufränkisch from this popular Burgenland natural winemaker. Aged in large neutral Austrian oak, this is fresh, spicy, bright, cool, and quaffable.
2023 Sierra de Toloño Blanco ($18)
Sandra Bravo’s entry-level white is from 100% viura. Super expressive, light and lithe, almost riesling-like, with notes of nectarine, hay, and pineapple. On the palate, it’s straight and elegant, with lots of finesse, and underlying minerality that gives it fine structure.
2022 MacRobert & Canals La Nave Blanco ($19)
Bryan MacRobert, who hails from South Africa, is among the most committed to making white wine in Rioja. This blend of 90 percent viura and 10 percent garnacha blanca is crisp, linear, and zesty with notes of lime leaf, pear, green apple, with flashes of white pepper and a great saline finish. It’s super introduction to Rioja blanco.
2023 Iuli ‘Natalin’ Vino Rosso ($20)
One of my favorites, and a great value. Though you won’t find the grape or vintage on the label, this wine is made from 100 percent grignolino. Light ruby, with a savory, earthy nose and flavors of black cherry and blackberry, and lively, elegant tannins.
2022 Accornero Bricco del Bosco Grignolino ($20)
Lovely and drinkable, with gentle, firm tannins and swirling notes of rose, red fruit, and attractive dark notes of pepper and asphalt. Good value.
2023 Cantina Terlano Tradition Pinot Bianco, $20
A step down from Terlano’s coveted Vorberg Riserva, but a great, affordable introduction to pinot blanc that will appeal to chardonnay fans. Fruity nose of pineapple, yellow peach, and mandarin orange, with war
2023 St.Michael-Eppan Schulthauser, $20
A great example of everyday pinot blanc from Alto Adige, helpfully labeled as both weissburgunder and pinot bianco. Aromas of peach blossom, peach skin, and flint, and flavors of sage, green tea, lemon curd, and a touch of smoke on the finish.
I’ve been thinking about this a lot. Will it actually change my wine buying habits? Perhaps it’s irresponsible of me (sorry budgeting apps), but…no. I realize I’m in a minority, but I would rather compromise my wallet than my wine preferences. I’m hopeful too that overlooked domestic producers who fit into these lower price tiers will shine during this time without having to compare themselves to imported wines.
Jason, love this post. I ordered 4 cases of wine before this happened, figuring we'll all need a drink (or four) in the coming months. I'm your classic $20-$25 a bottle gal...I don't want wine that costs less than that (and is crap) but really can't afford more. So stocking up and hoping for the best. Interestingly I started drinking Moldovan wines lately (!) which are amazing and cheap as hell. But there's a 31% tariff on Moldova. So...